Ryan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz: UFC 331 AI Prediction, Results and Highlights

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Ryan Gandra destroyed Ozzy Diaz in the first round.

After an uncharacteristic slower start, Gandra turn up the aggression and he blew through Diaz with a flurry of punches.

At this point, it is time to get Gandra a ranked opponent. He has proven to be too much for the fringe guys in the middleweight division. He has knocked out every one of his UFC opponents in the first round.

Gandra called out Israel Adesanya after the win.

A.I. Prediction Audit

Original Prediction: Gandra by TKO in first round

Actual Result: Gandra by TKO in first round

A.I. Prediction Summary

Results and highlights will be added after the fight. The original pre-fight prediction below will remain unchanged.

Ryan Gandra has spent less than two minutes fighting in the UFC.

That’s not an exaggeration.

The Brazilian middleweight stopped Jose Daniel Medina in 41 seconds in his promotional debut, then needed 1:15 to finish Zachary Reese at UFC 329. Combined, Gandra’s first two UFC victories lasted just 116 seconds. He enters UFC 331 on a nine-fight winning streak and a six-fight finishing streak.

Now the 31-year-old gets the most experienced UFC opponent of his young run.

Ozzy Diaz is 10-4 with seven knockouts and two submissions, and the Los Angeles native owns a considerable physical advantage: Diaz stands 6-foot-4 with a 79-inch reach, compared with Gandra at 6-foot-1 with a 74.5-inch reach.

Both fighters weighed 186 pounds Friday for their UFC 331 middleweight bout at Crypto.com Arena.

Ryan Gandra Hasn’t Needed Much Time Yet

Gandra enters at 10-1, with six knockouts and two submissions among his victories. Seven of his wins have ended in the first round, and UFC lists his average fight time at only 1:36.

His UFC statistics are extreme because of that small sample.

Gandra currently averages 11.71 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing only 2.30, with 74% significant-strike defense and 100% takedown defense. He has also averaged 9.41 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Those numbers shouldn’t be treated as stable long-term rates yet, but they illustrate how one-sided his first two UFC appearances have been.

UFC included Gandra among its 2026 half-year newcomers after his 41-second debut victory, and his July win over Reese only accelerated the momentum.

Gandra has already made clear that he views this run as the beginning of something larger. Ahead of UFC 331, he told UFC he is pursuing championship contention and has even been working specifically on how he communicates with fans and whom he plans to call out after victories.

Athlon’s UFC 331 preview examines the rest of Saturday’s card. UFC 331: 10 Things You Need to Know

Ozzy Diaz Has the Experience — And the Size

Diaz’s UFC results have been much less consistent.

He was stopped by Zhang Mingyang in his UFC debut in November 2024, rebounded by beating Djorden Santos by unanimous decision at UFC 313, then suffered a second-round knockout loss to Ateba Gautier in May.

The Santos fight is particularly relevant because it showed Diaz can operate effectively beyond the early rounds. All three judges scored it 29-28, giving Diaz his first UFC victory after 15 competitive minutes.

He also brings significantly more length than Gandra.

But Diaz’s defensive numbers create a concern against this particular opponent. UFC lists him as absorbing 6.52 significant strikes per minute, compared with 5.33 landed, and two of his three UFC appearances have ended with Diaz being stopped by strikes.

That makes Gandra’s explosive offense an especially dangerous matchup.

Athlon’s other UFC 331 AI predictions include the heavyweight matchup between Gable Steveson and Sean Sharaf and the light heavyweight fight between Alonzo Menifield and Iwo Baraniewski. Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf AI Prediction Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski AI Prediction

Ryan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz AI Prediction

The Athlon Sports MMA Team model scores seven categories from 1-100.

Category

Ryan Gandra

Ozzy Diaz

Style — 25%

91

84

Recent Form — 20%

98

72

Resume — 15%

82

86

Damage — 15%

95

78

Weight — 10%

92

92

Cardio — 10%

82

88

Intangibles — 5%

90

85

Weighted Score

90.8

82.3

AI Prediction: Ryan Gandra

Projected Result: Gandra by TKO, Round 1

Winner Confidence: 76%

Method Confidence: 68%

The model sees Diaz’s reach, experience and demonstrated ability to fight three rounds as his primary advantages.

The problem is getting enough time to use them.

Gandra has been overwhelming opponents before they can establish a rhythm. He closes distance aggressively, has shown heavy power with both punches and knees, and has not yet given UFC opponents many opportunities to make him pay defensively.

Diaz’s length could make Gandra work harder than Medina or Reese did, but Diaz’s recent history of absorbing significant damage weighs heavily in this matchup. Ateba Gautier knocked him out with a right hand in the second round in May, while Zhang Mingyang stopped him in the first round of his UFC debut.

Gandra’s current trajectory suggests another fast start.

Most likely alternative: Diaz by unanimous decision.

If Diaz survives the opening storm, uses his five-inch reach advantage and forces Gandra into a type of extended UFC fight he hasn’t yet experienced, the matchup becomes substantially more interesting.

Athlon’s full UFC schedule tracks the promotion’s remaining 2026 events. UFC Schedule 2026

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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Sep 19, 2026, where it first appeared in the MMA section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.