Charles Jourdain vs. Marlon Vera: UFC 331 AI Prediction, Results and Highlights
Results and highlights are forthcoming. This article will be updated after the official result, while the original pre-fight prediction below will remain unchanged.
Charles Jourdain’s move to bantamweight has changed the trajectory of his UFC career.
Marlon Vera is trying to change his.
They meet Saturday on the UFC 331 prelims at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Vera enters as the UFC’s No. 10-ranked bantamweight, while Jourdain brings a three-fight winning streak into the matchup. The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Athlon’s UFC 331 viewing guide has the complete card and streaming information. The card also carries an additional $50,000 “Proper Chaos” bonus that Dana White will award to one fighter.
Jourdain enters at 18-8-1 with eight knockout wins and seven submissions. Since moving down from featherweight to 135 pounds, he has submitted Victor Henry and Davey Grant before defeating Kyler Phillips by unanimous decision in April. The Phillips win gave Jourdain his third consecutive victory at bantamweight.
Vera owns the deeper UFC résumé.
The 33-year-old is 23-12-1 with eight knockout wins and 10 submissions. He has competed for the UFC bantamweight championship, knocked out former champions Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar, and owns a stoppage victory over Sean O’Malley. But he enters UFC 331 on a four-fight losing streak after decisions against O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, Aiemann Zahabi and David Martinez.
That creates a classic momentum-versus-experience matchup.
A.I. Prediction Summary
The Athlon Sports MMA Team prediction model evaluates seven categories and does not consider betting odds.
Bantamweight bout. Three rounds.
The Model Read
The clearest statistical difference is pace.
Jourdain lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.11. Vera lands 4.18 per minute and absorbs 5.34. Jourdain also carries a 57% significant-strike defense rate compared with Vera’s 50%.
That matters because Vera has historically been comfortable giving away early minutes while looking for damaging counters, kicks and late-fight momentum.
In a three-round fight, that approach becomes increasingly dangerous against someone with Jourdain’s volume.
Jourdain’s bantamweight run has also shown more than improved striking.
He submitted Henry and Grant with guillotines before being forced to fight through Kyler Phillips’ wrestling in April. Phillips found early success with takedowns, but Jourdain remained active from defensive positions and eventually took over the fight with his striking. UFC awarded the bout Fight of the Night.
Vera still has legitimate finishing weapons.
He owns 18 finishes in 23 professional victories, including 10 submissions, and carries dangerous kicks, elbows and opportunistic grappling.
His durability and experience are also significant advantages. Vera has fought five rounds multiple times and has shared the Octagon with O’Malley, Cruz, José Aldo, Cory Sandhagen and Figueiredo.
The model therefore gives Vera the edge in Resume and Intangibles.
Jourdain takes Style, Recent Form, Damage and Cardio.
The Prediction
Category / Weight | Charles Jourdain | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
Style — 25% | 92 | 87 |
Recent — 20% | 97 | 70 |
Resume — 15% | 85 | 97 |
Damage — 15% | 90 | 87 |
Weight — 10% | 95 | 92 |
Cardio — 10% | 93 | 91 |
Intangibles — 5% | 89 | 96 |
WEIGHTED SCORE | 92.3 | 85.4 |
Prediction | |
|---|---|
Pick | Charles Jourdain |
Projected result | Unanimous decision |
Winner confidence | 67% |
Method confidence | 61% |
Most likely alternative | Marlon Vera by TKO |
Deciding factor | Jourdain’s activity. If he maintains his current bantamweight pace, the model expects him to bank minutes while forcing Vera to spend too much of the fight waiting for a momentum-changing counter. |
Vera’s record makes him dangerous even when he is losing minutes.
His kicks, knees and elbows can abruptly change a fight, and Jourdain has historically been willing to engage in high-risk exchanges.
But the model is heavily influenced by what the fighters are doing right now.
Jourdain has won three straight since moving to bantamweight, including two submissions and a decision over Phillips.
Vera has lost four consecutive fights.
Experience keeps this matchup competitive.
Recent form gives Jourdain the pick.
Athlon’s UFC 2026 schedule tracks the rest of the promotion’s current calendar, while the team’s Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja prediction covers Saturday’s flyweight championship main event.
Prediction Model Formula
Each fighter receives a 1–100 score in seven categories:
Category | Weight |
|---|---|
Style | 25% |
Recent Form | 20% |
Resume | 15% |
Damage | 15% |
Weight | 10% |
Cardio | 10% |
Intangibles | 5% |
For additional Athlon MMA analytics, see Brian Mazique’s F.I.G.H.T. System glossary.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Sep 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the MMA section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.