Best value bets for UFC 332: Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong
With flyweight GOAT Valentina Shevchenko on the injury shelf, a vacant title is now up for grabs Saturday night at UFC 332 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Oddly, on a card with several former champions and main event stalwarts, neither of the two title contenders has ever been in a main event, much less a five-rounder. But given the depth of the rest of the card, surely we'll find value elsewhere.
Let's break it down:
Natalia Silva (-205) vs. Wang Cong (+170)
Silva's eight-fight win streak through the division includes three consecutive wins over former champions and only one (Rose Namajunas) took even one round from Silva. That level of dominance and consistency bodes well against a challenger with a strong record, but not nearly the same strength of schedule.
On paper, this title fight looks to be mostly a standup striking affair between two southpaws. Wang has superior accuracy, while Silva has better defense (which again, was earned against tougher talent). Neither attempts many takedowns, and neither spends much time wrestling. However, Wang joined Team Alpha Male, so it's hard to know if that will alter her normal game plan. There's also the uncertainty of their stamina in the championship rounds, especially given the high elevation of Salt Lake City.
In an otherwise close matchup, I'll take the more tested (and younger) fighter in Silva, whom the models lean toward even at two-to-one. Not a lot of value at that price, but I expect her to take the belt one way or the other. I also expect them to get beyond round three, where we'll see who has the better gas tank.
Best bet: Silva to win
Johnny Walker (-135) vs. Mick Parkin (+115)
Walker is hiding deep on the undercard despite having fought many times in main events. Perhaps it's partly due to the uncertainty of recently moving up a weight class, or perhaps it's the acknowledgement that after a strong initial run, he might not ever contend for a title after suffering so many knockout losses. Regardless, he's a talented guy whose primary weakness hasn't been a lack of weapons, but rather his chin.
Moving up in weight isn't an obvious solution for getting knocked out, but several things might work in his favor. First, he won't be cutting weight and might be fresher and more resilient than he was at 205 pounds. And despite the move up, he'll still have the range advantage. He's also not facing a guy known for power, so Walker could survive a few mistakes while finding his range. When it comes to offensive knockdown power, Walker has a huge advantage.
Although I hate the defensive liability, Walker is still the far more dangerous striker in a matchup that is likely to remain standing.
Best bet: Walker to win
Ismail Naurdiev (-135) vs. Marvin Vettori (+115)
You would think landing over 100 significant strikes in a fight would generally correlate to success, but Vettori has topped that total six times in the UFC and only won half of those contests. Looking closer at his stat line, he's only scored one knockdown in over five hours of Octagon time, and almost all of that was while standing and trading. He's made his career out of close-quarters fighting, yet is now on a four-fight losing streak, having amassed a staggering (figuratively and potentially literally) 1,061 career head strikes absorbed in the Octagon.
Across the cage is finally a lesser-known opponent, noteworthy since Vettori has been consistently fighting name talent for years now. Naurdiev's numbers match Vettori's closely in terms of his high pace of striking, though with slightly lower accuracy, yet tighter defense. The bigger difference is in the grappling, should Naurdiev decide the take the fight down. While his ground control isn't dominant, just being the one more likely to initiate takedowns could sway otherwise close rounds. And that's likely how this one ends — in a close decision. The odds will stay close on this one, but it's the cumulative damage on Vettori that has me leaning the other way.
Best bet: Naurdiev to win