UFC 333 full-card predictions: Can Movsar Evloev dethrone Alexander Volkanovski?
Abu Dhabi is once again the site of a numbered event, hosting UFC 333.
On Saturday, the featherweight title is back in the spotlight as two-time division king Alexander Volkanovski faces surging, undefeated top contender Movsar Evloev. It's one of two title bouts, with a bantamweight championship clash occupying the co-main event as Petr Yan battles Merab Dvalishvili in a trilogy clash.
High-stakes competition doesn't get much better than either of those title tilts. But throughout the rest of the card, several notable names are looking to make their own push toward championship bouts.
👑 UFC 333's lineup Crown grade: B- 👑
145 pounds: Alexander Volkanovski (-115) vs. Movsar Evloev (-105)
Complain all you want about the modern-day UFC and its lack of meritocracy, but UFC 333 proves it still exists on occasion, and this main event embodies that to the highest degree.
I've been firmly on the Evloev train for a while now. The guy is elite. He's as good as it gets on the ground at featherweight, and he's shown some underrated striking, particularly in his last win against Lerone Murphy. However, that last win is exactly why I'm picking against him against someone of Volkanovski's all-time status.
Evloev concerningly abandoned his grappling for practically all of his Murphy fight, and it arguably should have cost him the win, depending on how you scored it. But either way, it was too close. Blame that on Evloev feeling pressured into entertaining after never finishing anyone in the UFC or whatever it may be.
Volkanovski simply won't be outstruck by Evloev, especially if the challenger doesn't mix in any takedown threats. The champ is one of the smartest and most tactical competitors of "fight chess" we've ever seen. His kickboxing is sharp and methodical, which will let him land plenty of shots on the defensively suspect Evloev. There's no wasted energy with Volk.
Now, look at the wrestling aspect of this fight. Volkanovski is an equally brilliant grappler; he's just much more weathered than Evloev, and realistically, no one but the now-welterweight champion Islam Makhachev has ever controlled him on the ground. The point is, Evloev is a big featherweight grappler, but he won't have that much of a size advantage.
The competition level is comparable, but they're still not necessarily on the same playing field. Evloev is championship material. His undefeated record in 20 fights certainly proves that. Volkanovski feels like a matchup tailor-made to beat Evloev, given how the challenger exposed himself against Murphy.
Pick: Volkanovski
135 pounds: Petr Yan (-160) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+135)
Between their two fights, Yan's broken hand in the first fight was a bigger deal than Dvalishvili's activity and/or lack of preparation in the second.
I feel very confident about this, and I don't think the takedown stats alone could be a better proof point. Yes, Dvalishvili's ridiculous, record-setting 49 attempts in his win over Yan in 2023 were wildly impressive, but he still landed only 11 of those on an injured Yan. Compare that to their rematch, when Dvalishvili went 2 for 29 while Yan landed 5 of 9.
The adaptations, along with his health, were literally game-changing for Yan, who pieced up Dvalishvili almost at will in a brilliant showing last time out. There's little reason to believe anything significant has changed since their last fight, and neither has competed since. Sure, Dvalishvili can close the gap a bit, but in the time between fights, he won't have caught up to Yan's extremely high-level boxing, which few bantamweights have matched.
One thing we do know for sure is that Yan starts slow, more often than not. If Dvalishvili makes one big adjustment, it should be to get wild fast. Unload a Tasmanian devil-like onslaught of offense on Yan to throw him off and make him forget Dvalishvili's patented, machine-like wrestling game. That way, when he potentially needs it, it will be readily available.
It's just wishful thinking to imagine Dvalishvili doing that, though. All of this goes without mentioning that Yan has since fixed a back injury, making him even healthier for the task at hand. This should be another brilliant Yan performance reminiscent of the last, with perhaps a finish this time.
Pick: Yan
125 pounds: Lone'er Kavanagh (-110) vs. Ramazan Temirov (-110)
Flyweights on the main card. You love to see it.
Admittedly, Kavanagh is probably the better all-around fighter here. However, this fight comes down to whether Kavanagh can chin Temirov amid the absurd bomb-hurling the latter calls punching.
Temirov is a human cannonball at 125 pounds who effectively throws his entire body weight into chaos-creating windmill haymakers — and it works. If he misses, he picks you up and slams you to the mat for an uncomfortable clubbing. In a way, he's the male Jessica Andrade.
Hey, she became a champion, you know.
With that said, Kavanagh is great, and he was brought back down to Earth in his last fight against Brandon Royval after beating former champion Brandon Moreno. He's the more polished fighter overall, especially as a striker. But in this matchup, it probably won't matter. Temirov is a human tank who moves triple-fast.
Pick: Temirov
265 pounds: Alexander Volkov (-125) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+105)
Booking heavyweight and flyweight fights back-to-back is a terrible move by the UFC. It's almost like they want to really ram it home and remind us how dreadful the land of giants has become.
I've always been a Volkov defender. At least when it comes to his talent, entertainment levels be damned. He's fought a handful of annoying matchups in recent years, dealing with strong grapplers and such, and he will have to again on Saturday. Volkov is one of the division's most accurate precision snipers with gorgeous combos when he gets time to rattle them off.
Kuniev, on the other hand, is a top-tier wrestler who will aim to smother and smash. More so of the first part, though. He'll have his moments, holding Volkov against the cage and probably scoring a takedown or two. It will just come down to what he does with them.
Ultimately, Volkov should be able to pick apart Kuniev from range and land the more effective shots in any openings, making the fight close given the guaranteed stall points.
Pick: Volkov
145 pounds: Aaron Pico (-135) vs. Losene Keita (+110)
Here's your car crash fight of the night.
Pico's chin cannot be trusted. Truly. Give the man Mark Hunt's chin, and the guy probably has "former Bellator champion" on his resume right now.
That's really all I need for this one. Pico is spectacular and looked great after taking some concerning shots from Patricio Pitbull — coincidentally, the former multiple-time Bellator champion — in his last fight. But Keita is dynamite. The guy moves like a leopard packing power in his paws.
We only need five minutes for this one. Someone will go to sleep early, as fists fly in a fun, quick brawl. We've just seen it too many times before: It will be Pico.
Pick: Keita
Preliminary Notes
The light heavyweight division is really getting some love to close out the prelims. Azamat Murzakanov hasn't been seen since his stunning first loss to Paulo Costa, and now he faces Dominick Reyes. The latter still hopes to get back toward a title, which means he has to win.
Meanwhile, surging middleweight prospect Cameron Rowston gets a good veteran step-up against Abus Magomedov. Rowston has been impressive so far, but against much lesser competition. We'll find out whether Magomedov is too much, too soon, for the talented Aussie.
Quick picks
Azamat Murzakanov (-225) def. Dominick Reyes (+185)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-500) def. Nikita Krylov (+375)
Cameron Rowston (+110) def. Abusupiyan Magomedov (-135)
Grant Dawson (-125) def. Nurullo Aliev (+105)
Asaf Chopurov (-600) def. Colby Thicknesse (+425)
Abubakar Vagaev (-165) def. Jacob Malkoun (+135)
Daniel Santos (-135) def. Bolaji Oki (+110)
Kody Steele (-165) def. Noah Gugnon (+140)
Iasmin Lucindo (-400) def. Nicole Caliari (+310)