UFC 333 Predictions, Odds, Picks, Previews for Every Fight (October 24)

Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki

Bolaji Oki is the bigger man (3″ taller, 6″ reach), moving down from lightweight for this matchup after consecutive finish losses; cutting additional weight won’t improve his durability or cardio.

As a result, Daniel “Willycat” Santos – who applied pressure, pushes a pace, and should have much better cardio than Oki – is a solid live betting target after five minutes.

Oki is an explosive athlete and should have a power advantage early, and Santos is coming off a knockout loss to Doo Ho Choi in May. Still, Oki tends to put every ounce of power into his efforts, and if he doesn’t hurt Santos early, the momentum will eventually slip away.

I project an edge on Santos to win by KO/TKO (projected +289, listed +350), and I like his odds to win in Round 2 (+750) or 3 (+1200), pre-fight, before firing at his live moneyline.

Bets

• Daniel Santos wins by TKO/KO (+360, 0.1u), BallyBet; bet to +350
• Daniel Santos wins in Round 2 (+750, 0.1u), BallyBet; bet to +600
• Daniel Santos wins in Round 3 (+1200, 0.05u), BallyBet; bet to +1000
• Daniel Santos Live after Round 1

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov

Asaf Chopurov, the UAE Warriors champ, was considered one of the best non-UFC fighters in MMA. Still, he will make his octagon debut on Saturday against Alexander Volkanovski’s chief training partner, Colby Thicknesse.

Thicknesse is well-rounded and has never been finished, but he has little finishing power himself; the question is whether he can survive and cover a near 5-1 price tag by surviving against a dangerous debutant.

Thicknesse came close to falling against both Vince Morales and Josias Musasa in recent wins, and Chopurov – who has just 11 pro fights but 35 amateur MMA bouts under his belt- has a wealth of experience at 24 years old.

I projected this fight to reach a decision about 45% of the time, compared to a divisional average closer to 54%, and I still see value on the goes-to-decision or distance prop, compared to listed odds of +180.

Bet Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) or the Fight Goes the Distance Prop (+180) down to +135.

Moreover, I show correlated value on Chopurov to win by decision (projected +195, listed +250) at +225 or better.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (+180, 0.2u), FanDuel; bet to +135

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev

I project an edge on either the Under 2.5 Rounds or Fight to End Inside the Distance, and for Grant Dawson to win by finish (projected +300, listed +360) in Saturday’s bout with Nurullo Aliev.

Dawson is relatively chinny and can be knocked out with a clean shot by any opponent, but he’s one of the best back-takers in the sport and offers a lethal rear-naked choke, plus damaging ground-and-pound when opponents let him stay on top.

Aliev is the younger man (7 years) and a solid wrestler in his own right (11.1 to 5.5 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance in favor of Dawson) who has controlled opponents – in a more limited sample – just as much as Dawson has (90% to 92%). Still, Dawson is the superior finisher if this fight goes to ground.

Bet the inside-the-distance prop at +145 or better, and play Dawson to finish to +325.

Still, in what could be a wrestling-heavy fight, I wouldn’t want any part of Dawson’s moneyline as the road fighter in Abu Dhabi if it reaches a decision.

Bets

• Aliev/Dawson, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+152, 0.15u), FanDuel; bet to +145.
• Grant Dawson wins Inside the Distance (+360, 0.1u), BetRivers; bet to +325

Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston

Abus Magomedov is a fast, dynamic starter with a bad gas tank, and if Cam Rowston can weather the storm for five minutes, I like him to flip the momentum and win in the back half of the fight.

Magomedov is the quicker man and the superior grappler, and Rowston’s takedown defense seems like a potential weakness; still, “The Battle Giraffe” showed he could scramble up consistently against Torrez Finney, and every time he returns to his feet, it should help tire his opponent out. Magomedov doesn’t grapple as much as he would if he trusted his cardio.

I don’t project an edge on either side of the pre-fight moneyline. Still, I see a slight edge on Rowston by KO/TKO (projected +373, listed +420), or I would consider his odds to win in Round 2 (+750) or Round 3 (+1400) while awaiting a live opportunity after five minutes on the underdog.

• Cam Rowston wins by TKO/KO (+420, 0.1u), FanDuel; bet to +400
• Cam Rowston wins in Round 2 (+750, 0.1u), Fanatics; bet to +600
• Cam Rowston wins in Round 3 (+1400, 0.05u), Fanatics; bet to +1000
• Cam Rowston Live after Round 1

Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov

Dominick Reyes is the bigger man in this fight – 6″ taller, with a 6″ reach advantage- but he’s likely to get sniped by Azamat Murzakanov, a finisher with one-punch power who has consistently defeated longer and taller Light Heavyweights.

Murzkanov is coming off his first career loss and knockout defeat himself- against Paulo Costa in April – and his chin may be cracked now following that performance. He always seemed small for the 205-pound division, and at age 37 he’s not getting any younger.

Still, you have to prefer his durability – Reyes has been knocked out four times, including three KO losses in Round 1. Reyes seemed on his way out of the sport several fights back, but he still has a path to either a knockout win or a volume-based decision as an underdog.

While my model points to Reyes as the potential value side of this fight, setting his fair odds at +167, compared to odds as high as +186 on prediction markets, I’m still inclined to pass. As stated above, the UFC has been incredibly intentional with their recent matchmaking, and Reyes is the clear “B” side of this matchup.

Bets

• Pass

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita

• TBD

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Check out my colleague John LanFranca’s write-up (link) on Volkov-Kuniev.

Alexander Volkov opened as a bigger favorite in this fight, but the line has moved closer to a pick’em; I projected his moneyline at -126 and would bet him small to -120.

He’s the bigger man (3″ taller, 4″ reach) than Kuniev, with a wealth of fight experience (50+ pro fights), and if Kuniev is unwilling to wrestle, this should be Volkov’s fight to lose. Kuniev comes from a Dagestani combat Sambo background, but has seemingly been unwilling to mix takedowns into his game plan since winning on contender series.

Volkov should chip away with straight punches and teeps, and his volume should prove more effective as the fight extends (+2.8 to +0.6 strike differential per minute at distance; 6.3 to 3.7 landed per minute).

In addition to Volkov’s moneyline, I also like this fight to end inside the distance more frequently than the odds suggest (projected +132, listed +160), and for Volkov to potentially find a knockout (projected +383, listed +410) or finish (projected +295, listed +360), but I prefer the simpler approach. I will revisit the violence props before adding them or passing on those.

Bets

• Alexander Volkov (-120, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to -120

Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov

Check out my colleague Billy Ward’s write-up (link) on Kavanagh-Temirov.

Ramazan Temirov is one of the more aggressive fighters on the roster, marching forward and swinging hooks. Still, he needs to navigate a size discrepancy (2″ shorter, 4″ reach) against Lone’er Kavanagh, who will be the faster man landing combinations from range while staying on his bike.

Temirov has massive power for Flyweight, with five knockdowns in 22 UFC minutes,  and Kavanagh has shown a relatively suspect chin. Temirov can sustain his style for at least ten minutes; all it takes is two big punches that lead to knockdowns, without getting finished, for him to pull the upset.

Still, Kavanagh’s finish losses came against taller, higher-volume strikers in Charles Johnson and Brandon Royval; if this fight gets past Round 1, Kavanagh should start running downhill.

Temirov would be a bigger problem for Kavanagh in the smaller APEX cage. Still, in the regular-sized octagon, I like the Englishman to navigate space comfortably and find his range.

Bet Lone’er live after Round 1, and consider taking a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with Kavanagh and Over 1.5 Rounds (+140) or Kavanagh and Fight Starts Round 2 (+121).

Bets

• SGP: Lone’er Kavanagh & Fight Starts Round 2 (+121, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to +110
• Lone’er Kavanagh wins in Round 3 or by Decision (+180, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to +160
• Lone’er Kavanagh Live after Round 1

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Check out my colleague Dan Tom’s write-up on Saturday’s co-main event and bantamweight title bout between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili.

You can also check out my preview from Yan-Dvalishvili II from December, when I bet Yan on the moneyline and by decision at +350 and +600, respectively.

With those prices now at -135 and +140, it’s hard to get behind the current champion again. However, it’s a bit easier to swallow when you recall that Yan was a -240 favorite before the first fight; I think that’s closer to the correct line for the trilogy bout.

Yan was severely compromised during the first fight, throwing his right hand fewer than five times across a 25-minute bout. Moreover, that fight being in the APEX benefitted Merab greatly, as he could consistently pursue takedown attempts and shove Yan up against the fence while giving the Russian limited opportunities to get back to the center of the cage.

Yan is one of the best anti-wrestlers in the sport – perhaps the best now that Jose Aldo has retired – and he has shown an ability to mix in trip takedowns against both Merab and his teammate, Aljamain Sterling, in their four prior encounters. His style seems like the perfect antidote to Merab’s aggression, and I don’t think “The Machine” can get back to his peak self at 35; his best efforts are likely behind him.

Prime Merab is unlike anything I have ever seen, but I do think his athleticism has crested. He doesn’t have a fighting style that will age particularly well, as his physicality continues to diminish.

Merab landed more significant strikes than Yan in the rematch. Still, he absorbed much more damage than his opponent, and if the trend continues, Yan could become the second man to finish Dvalishvili in MMA and the first to knock him out.

I project an edge on Yan’s moneyline, and would bet him up to -165 (projected -180). However, I don’t see an edge on the total or any winning-method props.

Yan also typically starts slowly to make his reads before stepping on the gas in Round 2; he’s worth a live bet after Round 1 if he falls behind in any matchup.

Bets

• Petr Yan (-135, 0.5u), DraftKings; bet to -165
• Petr Yan Live after Round 1

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev

For more information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday’s main event, check out my full fight preview.

In short, I projected Evloev as a 54.5% favorite (-120 implied odds) in this fight, and I would play his moneyline up to -110.

However, I prefer his finish props, projecting Evloev to win by TKO/KO at +782 and his inside-the-distance prop at +476, compared to listed odds of +1000 and +600; bet Evloev to record his first UFC knockout and/or finish at +850 and +500, respectively.

To that end, I also like Evloev in the finish-only market at even money or better.

And lastly, you can find Evloev to land 1+ knockdown at +480 at FanDuel (albeit at small limits); take that prop down to +400.

Evloev has been extremely unlucky not to get a finish during his UFC run, facing a litany of durable opponents; However, he hasn’t recorded an official knockdown. He has wobbled and bloodied several of his foes. And while Volkanovski is the most skilled opponent he’s faced, he’s also one of the less durable opponents Evloev has drawn over this 11-fight run.

Bets

• Movsar Evloev (+104, 0.25u), NoVig; bet to -110
• Movsar Evloev wins by TKO/KO (+1000, 0.05u), DraftKings; bet to +850
• Movsar Evloev wins Inside the Distance (+600, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to +500
• Movsar Evloev: 1+ Knockdowns Landed (+480, 0.06u), FanDuel; bet to +400
• Movsar Evloev: Finish Only Moneyline (+130, 0.25u), DraftKings; bet to +100