UFC Vegas 123, Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan, main card predictions
While the MMA world is still buzzing about the results of UFC 333, another fight card is just three days away. The UFC heads back to its home base, the Meta Apex, for UFC Vegas 123.
It’s a major step back in name value, but these Apex cards have a reputation for absurd highlights, whether it’s an upset or a big knockout.
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The fight card is headlined by a ranked lightweight matchup. Former title challenger Renato Moicano faces Tom Nolan.
In the co-main event, longtime UFC veteran Randy Brown faces one of the top prospects at welterweight, Jacobe Smith.
The rest of the main card fills out with fun stylistic matchups and ranked fights. Here’s the full preview and predictions for Saturday night at the Meta Apex.
Main event: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan
High stakes at lightweight, Moicano is playing the role of gatekeeper, while Tom Nolan looks to pass his first test against a seasoned veteran who has fought the best.
Despite Nolan’s youth, this fight feels like a mismatch. Moicano is much more well-rounded, being able to put Nolan down with straight punches or get the fight to the ground.
Nolan likes to initiate the clinch, which works in Moicano’s favor, as he can use that position to take the fight to the ground with body-lock takedowns.
Final prediction: Renato Moicano via second-round submission
Co-main event: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith
Brown was originally set to face Carlos Leal, but Jacobe Smith steps in on 12 days’ notice and looks to remain undefeated. Smith has an extensive wrestling background, having wrestled at Oklahoma State.
Brown is a long, rangy welterweight, with great accuracy in his straight shots. However, this may be another tough night for him. Brown has lost three of his last four, and now faces an explosive striker with elite wrestling in Smith.
Smith is going to want to end this fight early. He has to take the fight to Brown despite his height and reach disadvantage, and wrestle early. Brown has solid takedown defense, but Smith is one of the better wrestlers he will have faced.
There’s certainly a path for Brown to win. His six-inch reach advantage, superior striking, and having a full fight camp should help. However, Brown is getting older and hasn’t had inspiring performances lately.
Final prediction: Jacobe Smith via first-round TKO
Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden
Unlike the top two fights on the card, this is a veteran-on-veteran crime. Both flyweights enter Saturday night with only one win in their last five fights.
Realistically, the loser of this fight gets cut from the UFC. Both fighters have six knockout wins and will look to add a seventh. Durden is the more well-rounded fighter, mixing in takedowns while always trying to make a fight ugly.
This feels like either a first-round knockout or a slugfest. Osbourne’s speed will prove too much for Durden as he presses forward with reckless abandon.
Final prediction: Ode Osbourne via first-round TKO
Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos
It’s the Santos bowl. Both women enter Saturday night on three-fight win streaks, but Luana Santos has been fighting more lately.
Yana Santos hasn’t fought in 2026 and faces a much better grappler in Luana. If Luana gets this fight to the ground, there’s a good chance the round ends there.
Luana Santos won’t play into Yana’s hands; she’ll fight to her advantage.
Final prediction: Luana Santos via unanimous decision
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov
This is the easiest fight to pick on the card. JPL has elite jiu-jitsu, and Hasanov has great wrestling but can’t keep his opponents down with top control. Neither fighter is exceptional in striking.
Even from the bottom, JPL can find a submission or scramble to a better position and work from there.
Final prediction: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani via second-round submission
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