One of the biggest names in boxing is set to entertain again as Manny Pacquiao collides with Errol Spence Jr., the No. 4-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world. The two will compete for Spence’s WBC and IBF welterweight titles while the vacant The Ring welterweight belt is also on the line.
The event will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on August 21. A quick look at Spence vs Pacquiao odds shows it is Errol who is listed as the favorite while Pac-Man will walk to the ring as an underdog.
Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Spence vs Pacquiao odds with Spence set as the -240 chalk and Pacquiao the +180 underdog. This means for you to profit $100 on a Spence win, you would have to wager $240, while a $100 bet on Pacquiao would net you $180.
Odds as of July 7 at Bovada
, we can see the implied win probability for this matchup. Errol’s odds of -240 represent an implied win probability of 70.59 percent while Manny’s odds have a 35.71 percent implied win probability.
Seeing Pac-Man as an underdog is extremely intriguing. The multi-division champion has been the betting favorite in each of his last six fights and through his career there haven’t been many times you could find him as the plus-money option. Additionally, Manny is having a bit of a career resurgence, eyeing a four-fight winning streak for the first time in 10 years.
You don’t climb the pound-for-pound rankings without kicking some ass along the way and that’s what Spence has done en route to a 27-0 record. In each of his fights in which odds have been available, “The Truth” has walked to the ring as the betting favorite, though the -240 line is his longest since he was a -200 favorite in his victory over Kell Brook in 2017 in his first world title fight.
This is the 72nd professional boxing match for Pacquaio, who carries an impressive 62-7-2 record into this bout. Arguably, Pac-Man’s best days are behind him – it was 10 or more years ago when he won 15 straight fights, including stopping Oscar De La Hoya and Miguel Cotto and beating Shane Mosley and Juan Manuel Marquez.
That said, Manny is still dancing with some of the young fighters of today, beating Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman in his last two appearances, but Spence may be on another level. Pacquiao is a dangerous counter-striker, especially with his left hand, and if he can make this fight ugly, getting in the pocket and exchanging hands, he can turn back the clock and pick up the win.
I think there are two areas The Truth needs to rely on early in the fight to perhaps put Pacquiao away later in the bout. Spence has outstanding footwork and can be hard to hit. We know that Pac-Man is going to chase him down looking to get into a brawl, so Errol will have to use his reach advantage and footwork to maintain distance and counter when he’s engaged upon.
Furthermore, Spence does a great job working the body early and often, especially when he’s in the pocket, which surely will happen several times in this bout. His ability to switch stances could also make Pac-Man think and create opportunities for Spence to land heavy at times as he should have a speed advantage and needs to capitalize on these moments early.
If Spence wants to test his ego, he may enter the pocket and trust his counter-striking and power to back Pacquiao off, though I think a better approach is to stick and move early and counter to the body when he’s cut off.
There is good betting value on The Truth at -240, one of the better lines you will ever get for him. With Pacquiao out of competition for over two years, how will the 42-year-old look? I have to play Spence and I think he might be able to get the legend out of there inside the distance.