In early June, Logan Paul took on arguably boxing’s GOAT, Floyd Mayweather, and fought to a decision. Paul now has his sights set on Anderson Silva, arguably the GOAT of MMA.
The two are rumored to be boxing in Dubai on September 19, though nothing has been made official. While a fight announcement hasn’t been released, Logan Paul vs Anderson Silva odds have been and the former UFC champion is the betting favorite.
Online sportsbook Bovada has the Paul vs Silva odds with Anderson listed as the -240 chalk and Logan the +180 underdog. This means that you must wager $240 to profit $100 with a Silva victory while a $180 profit can be made with a $100 winning bet on Paul.
We can examine the Paul vs Silva betting odds further, which tells us that Silva’s -240 line represents an implied win probability of 70.59 percent while Paul’s implied win probability is 35.71 percent.
Odds as of August 3 at Bovada
It is quite the shift in odds in favor of Paul after he closed as a +500 underdog in his exhibition bout with Mayweather, which still may have been generous. However, I think many folks who watched that fight were fairly impressed by Paul’s improvements and being able to go eight rounds with Floyd – though I’m sure a 30-pound weight difference helped.
Flash back seven or so years ago and this betting line would have been not too dissimilar to the Mayweather vs Paul line. Go back to perhaps May of this year and Paul may have been favored over the Spider. However, Silva, as an underdog, went to Mexico and scored a split-decision win over former WBC champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in mid-June.
Mind you, that split decision is a little flawed – it should have been unanimous – but Chavez had the crowd, the commentary team and likely a judge in his back pocket.
In the first half of the Mayweather fight, Paul did a good job bullying the smaller man and throwing jabs, though he relied too heavily on head-hunting the shorter defensive wizard, which led to poor strike accuracy. When he was able to close distance, he would throw a flurry of punches (not exactly the most technical strikes) and he also absorbed plenty of body shots really well.
It was a bit of a different story in the second half of the bout as “Maverick” looked a little tired, simply tied things up when he was under pressure and got wobbled a few times. Ultimately, there were some positives in Paul surviving eight rounds but his striking inefficiencies were apparent.
In Anderson’s boxing bout with Chavez, he was under attack for the majority of the fight but it was no problem for the former UFC champ. The Spider had a snappy jab, kept his hands high and when he went on the attack, he landed accurately and at times powerfully.
As the fight progressed, Silva’s confidence grew and we started to see some of the showboating that we saw in his UFC prime, with his hands low and leaning against the ropes to lure Chavez into attacking him, when he would counter effectively.
While Paul had a sizable weight advantage over Mayweather, that won’t be the case in this bout. I think this will be a big problem. Maverick won’t be able to bully the Spider early and as the fight progresses and Paul slows, Silva will go on the attack even more.
Additionally, with the YouTube star frequently head-hunting, that’s not a good approach against a guy that once had the largest strike differential in the UFC because of his elite defensive skills and ability to avoid strikes. Overall, I expect Silva to be elusive early in the fight, landing a few long jabs, and when Paul tires, the Spider will go on the attack and really take over.