Lewis vs Gane Odds & Prediction: Gane Favored to be Interim Champ

Although the UFC crowned its new heavyweight champion, Francis Ngannou, in March and no injuries are known, an interim heavyweight championship fight will headline UFC 265 when Derrick Lewis collides with Ciryl Gane. UFC 265 is scheduled to take place on August 7 in Lewis’s hometown of Houston, Texas.  

Online sportsbook Bovada has released Lewis vs Gane odds and the hometown hero, Lewis, is the +270 underdog, while the visiting Frenchman, Gane, is the -360 favorite. This means you would have to wager $360 on a Gane victory to profit $100, while a $100 bet on a Lewis win would profit you $270.

Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane Odds

Odds as of August 6 from Bovada

Looking at the Lewis vs Gane odds, tells us that Ciryl’s odds of -360 represent an implied win probability of 78.26 percent while Derrick’s implied win probability is 27.03 percent.

Lewis vs Gane Odds Analysis

What a rise it has been for Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane. In just his seventh fight in the UFC and his 10th pro fight overall, he’s favored to win the interim heavyweight championship. Perhaps it’s not that surprising to see him as the chalk, though, as he has been the betting favorite in each of his UFC bouts and closed over -200 in five of them.

Being the Underdog is Nothing New for Lewis

For the second straight time and sixth time over his last nine fights, Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis comes into a fight as the plus-money option. In his most recent outing, Lewis was a +300 (or 3:1) underdog against Curtis Blaydes, scoring a second-round knockout win that put him in line for a championship fight and perhaps another underdog win for the bettors.

Lewis vs Gane Preview

Lewis has become a fan favorite and no doubt the Houston crowd will be in his corner. His fandom has grown because of his wild Instagram, his humorous post-fight interviews and, of course, his devastating knockout power. The latter point is also illustrated on his body as he has “Knockout King” tattooed on his chest, which is fitting because he holds the most knockout victories in UFC heavyweight history.

The Black Beast has some unorthodox strikes at times – we’ve seen head kicks and jumping head kicks, no easy feat for a true 265-pounder. However, it is his always-cocked right hand that is most dangerous and if it lands, the fight is over. On the floor, don’t look for Lewis to be welcoming that approach. That said, he has a great ability to get up off his back due to his pure power.

Gane Must Stick to Game Plan

While Lewis is more flat-footed, looking for one punch to end the night, Gane is much more active. Bon Gamin moves more like a middleweight (185 pounds) than a heavyweight, constantly moving on the outside and bouncing around.

Despite this approach, that doesn’t mean Gane isn’t a dangerous fighter as he has stopped six of his nine opponents (three knockouts, three submissions). He is extremely fast for the division, able to close the distance, land a heavy shot and then scurry out of danger without absorbing a strike coming back his way. Gane averages 5.13 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.60.

Lewis vs Gane Prediction

Betting for or against Lewis is always a dangerous game as he can land his one punch at literally any point in the fight and it’s all over. On the flip side, Gane is extremely technical, very fast and has outstanding conditioning that allows him to continue fighting his fight for the duration of the bout with ease.

I would love to see the Black Beast win, perhaps solely for what would surely be an amazing post-fight interview. But I think this matchup is the absolute worst for his style – a mobile, fast opponent with great conditioning. Gane should survive and capture gold.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane (-360) via decision