UFC Edmonton Predictions, Picks, Projections, Best Bets, Trades for Saturday, October 17

Louis Jourdain vs. Timothy Cuamba

Billy Ward, Staff Writer

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET

It’s hard to remember another UFC event with so many debuting fighters being placed on the main card. That’s mostly due to the UFC’s usual attempt to pack the card with Canadian fighters, as the country is fairly thin on veteran talent. One of those debuting Canadian’s is Louis Jourdain, younger brother of long-time UFC veteran Charles.

The younger Jourdain makes his promotional debut after picking up a third-round submission win on the 2025 Contender Series just over a year ago. Like his brother, he’s a slick boxer and jiu-jitsu stylist who puts out a ton of volume on the feet, while chasing submission attempts from his back or as a means to deter takedowns. Jourdain has competed in kickboxing as an amateur and boxing as a pro, and clearly prefers the striking arts — his submission win on the Contender Series was more of a “club and sub” than evidence of superior grappling.

He gets a relatively tough test for his UFC debut proper in the form of Timothy Cuamba, who brings a 2-3 record into the fight. Two of those losses were close decisions at higher weight classes, lightweight against Bolaji Oki and featherweight against Lucas Almeida. That means he’s 2-1 at bantamweight in the UFC, with that loss coming to the supremely talented Bernardo Sopaj.

Cuamba will be the much bigger man here, with two inches of reach but a much more muscular frame than Jourdain. He’s also a better wrestler, having taken down all of his UFC opponents other than Sopaj, with six total takedowns across five UFC fights. That will be the key for Cuamba, as Jourdain doesn’t defend takedowns so much as look to counter them with grappling. Takedowns should be there for Cuamba, as long as he’s able to avoid getting submitted and/or reversed in the process. He’s never been finished with strikes despite facing bigger/stronger opponents in the past.

I believe Cuamba can do enough to stay safe on the ground against Jourdain, while winning rounds due to his control and top game. I’m taking a shot on him as an underdog at +155 odds via BetMGM, but that’s not my only bet.

I also like Cuamba to land a single takedown at -150 via DraftKings. If structured right, you can break even with the takedown bet even if Cuamba loses, with considerable upside if both bets hit — and they’re heavily correlated.